FxPro：英镑美元趋势线的支撑点在1.5212处

Data/Event Risks

　　数据／事件风险

　　GBP: That so much attention is paid to a number which is prone to revisions and looks back over the previous 3 months is sometimes a mystery. Even more attention will be paid today because if GDP declines, the UK will have officially entered a triple-dip recession. The market is looking for a 0.1% increase. A decline would see sterling hit as expectations of further QE increase.

　　JPY:Of course, it’s far too early to expect the recent bout of renewed QE measure to start impacting the inflation numbers in Japan, but the numbers out Friday morning will be key in knowing where the Bank of Japan is working from. Expectations are for headline CPI to fall 0.8%, with ex-fresh food declining 0.4% on the same YoY basis.

　　英镑：如此多的关注放在一个易于被修改而且经常回顾过去三个月的数字上，令人十分疑惑。而今天会吸引更多的关注，因为如果GDP 数据下降，英国就正式进入了三底衰退的时期。市场期盼能有0.1%的增长。下降的话会让英镑符合进一步增加量化宽松计划的预期。

　　日元：当然，要期待最近一轮的新量化宽松措施能开始影响日本的通胀数字还为时太早，但周五上午发布的数字对于了解日本银行的工作会是关键。我们的期待就是新闻报道的CPI 能下降0.8%，除开生鲜的食物能在同样年同比的基础上下降0.4%。

　　Idea of the Day

　　今日看法

　　Sterling is not that far from more decisively breaking the upward correction seen on cable from the mid-March low of 1.4832 and today’s data just may decide whether the up-trend on cable is broken. It’s ironic that so much attention is paid to the first indication on GDP, given that the numbers are very much a look into the rear view mirror and are always later revised. If we see GDP fall in today’s release, then the UK will have officially entered a triple-dip recession. But even if we see the anticipated 0.1% increase, that will still represent a decline in output over the previous 6 months given the -0.3% decline in Q4 last year. Trendline support for cable comes in at 1.5212.

　　英镑要决定性的突破英镑美元从三月中旬的低点1.4832开始出现的上行修正已经不是很遥远了。而今天的数据可能只可以确定英镑美元的上行趋势是否已经被破坏。具有讽刺意味的是如此多的注意力都在GDP 的首次发布上，因为这些数字随后可能会被修改多次。如果今天发布的GDP 数据下降，那么英国就会正式进入三底衰退的阶段。但是，即使我们期盼的0.1%的增长出现了，也仍然意味着过去六个月以来输出的下降，因为去年第四季度有-0.3%的下跌。英镑美元趋势线的支撑点在1.5212处。

　　Latest FX News

　　最新外汇新闻

　　JPY:The 100 level on USDJPY proving to be ever more pivotal for the market as it trades near but not through it. The weekly portfolio flow data again showed Japanese investors to be selling foreign assets (rather than the buying anticipated post-BoJ decisions). The other point to note is reticence of authorities to comment on the currency, implying they are probably happy with the levels currently prevailing.

　　EUR: The single currency had held up fairly well in the face of the disappointing data seen this week. This is despite increased expectations for lower rates from the ECB next week. The lack of reaction in part reflects the fact that market interest rates (paid by banks) are already very low because of the plentiful liquidity in the market, so a cut in the benchmark rate from the ECB would have only limited impact on these market rates.

　　GBP: Sterling treading cautiously ahead of the GDP numbers today. Trendline support for cable comes in at 1.5212, a break of which will be bearish and further confirm the correction in cable from the 1.4832 low is over.

　　AUD:Recovering from modest weakness towards the end of Wednesday on the back of stronger risk appetite globally, allowing AUDUSD to move back above the 1.03 level.

　　日元：美元日元方面100这个水平对于市场来说应该是越来越重要了，因为交易都发生在这个水平附近而没有突破这个水平。每周组合现金流数据再次显示，日本的投资者将会出售其外国资产(而不是去相信预计到的日本银行后来的决定)。另一个值得注意的地方就是当局对货币的言论保持沉默，这意味着他们可能对于目前的局势比较满意。

　　欧元：虽然这周的数据令人失望，但是欧元的情况还是保持得相当的好。对欧洲央行下周进行降息的预期虽然越来越高，也没有影响欧元。这种缺乏反映的情况部分反映出，由于市场已经有足够的流动性导致市场利率(由银行支付)已经非常低。因此欧洲央行降低基准利率对于市场利率的影响会比较有限。

　　英镑：今天的GDP 数据发布前英镑步伐比较小心。趋势线支撑点在1.5212处，突破此点将比较利空，也进一步确定英镑美元从低点1.4832出现的修正已经完结。

　　澳元：由于全球对风险的胃口在高涨，周三结束后澳元已经从温和的疲软中恢复过来，这让澳元美元回到了1.03之上。

　　FX Alerts

　　BIG RELIEF ON STERLING

　　英镑大大的缓解

　　25/04/13@ 08:38 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130425/yingbang-dada-huanjie

　　GBPUSD up more than 1-big figure to 1.5400 after GDP rose 0.3% in Q1 (expected 0.1%). After the 0.3% decline in Q4 2012, this means that the UK economy was essentially flat over the past 6 months. The reaction on the currency is a lot for a GDP release 0.2% above expectations, but this reflects 2 things. Firstly, the fact that the market was fearful of a decline leading to increased pressure for more QE. Secondly, the media (for what it's worth) will now not be able to talk of a tripe-dip recession. This also means that the uptrend in cable in place from a technical perspective.

　　第一季度GDP 数字上涨了0.3%后(预期是0.1%)，英镑美元上涨了超过一个大数字，到了1.5400。2012年第四季度下降了0.3%后，这意味着英国的经济在过去六个月里本质上表平。而因为GDP 数据超出预期0.2%，对于货币的反映也很大，不过这反映了两个事情。一是市场害怕下降会导致更多量化宽松面临更多压力。第二就是媒体现在不能讨论所谓三底衰退了。这也意味着从技术上来看英镑美元方面的上升趋势已经就位。

　　FX Alerts

　　EURUSD BACK BELOW 1.30

　　欧元美元回到1.30之下

　　25/04/13@ 14:32 GMT by Simon Smith, Chief Economist

　　http://www.fxpro.cn/news/forex-news/20130425/ouyuan-meiyuan-huidao-130-zhixia

　　EURUSD below 1.30, down 100 pips in past 2 hours. EURGBP close to 3-month low, currently 0.84163.

　　欧元美元回到1.30之下，过去两小时之内下降了100个pip。欧元英镑接近三个月的低点，目前为0.84163。