Telefonica SA

WBAG:TEF

西班牙 / 通信服务 / 多元化电信服务

概况

股息

10年增长率现金流贴现退出法

股票价格

4.29 EUR

公允价值

7.78 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	11.5% - 10.5%	11.0%
Perpetuity Growth Rate	0.5% - 1.5%	1.0%
Fair Value	6.97€ - 8.75€	7.78€
Upside	62.8% - 104.4%	81.7%

0.1%

Revenue 10y CAGR

33.2%

10y Avg EBITDA Margin

10.1%

Unlevered FCF 10y CAGR

10-Year DCF Model: Gordon Growth Exit

股票价格

4.29 EUR

公允价值

7.78 EUR

看涨

81.7%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(EUR in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34

Revenue	41,315	40,715	41,081	41,226	42,270	41,698	41,698	41,698	41,698	41,698	41,698
% Growth	1.6%	-1.5%	0.9%	0.4%	2.5%	-1.4%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

EBITDA	9,732	12,956	13,056	12,866	13,456	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253
% of Revenue	23.6%	31.8%	31.8%	31.2%	31.8%	34.2%	34.2%	34.2%	34.2%	34.2%	34.2%

支持的计算方式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(EUR in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Dec-32	Dec-33	Dec-34	Terminal

EBITDA		12,956	13,056	12,866	13,456	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253	14,253
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(8,481)	(8,504)	(8,142)	(8,453)	(8,409)	(8,409)	(8,409)	(8,409)	(8,409)	(8,409)	(4,714)

EBIT		4,475	4,552	4,724	5,003	5,844	5,844	5,844	5,844	5,844	5,844	9,539
Pro forma Taxes		(850)	(865)	(897)	(951)	(1,110)	(1,110)	(1,110)	(1,110)	(1,110)	(1,110)	(1,812)
NOPAT	3,708	3,625	3,687	3,826	4,052	4,734	4,734	4,734	4,734	4,734	4,734	7,727

Capital Expenditures	(5,790)	(5,078)	(4,895)	(4,942)	(5,287)	(4,962)	(4,962)	(4,962)	(4,962)	(4,962)	(4,962)	(4,962)
NWC Investment	44	(40)	24	10	70	(38)	0	0	0	0	0	28
(+) D&A	5,154	8,481	8,504	8,142	8,453	8,409	8,409	8,409	8,409	8,409	8,409	4,714

Free Cash Flow	3,116	6,988	7,321	7,036	7,289	8,143	8,181	8,181	8,181	8,181	8,181	7,506
% Growth		124%	5%	-4%	4%	12%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	-8%

加载出错

Telefonica SA

WBAG:TEF

西班牙 / 通信服务 / 多元化电信服务

10年增长率现金流贴现退出法