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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.6x - 1.7x | 1.6x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.3x - 1.4x | 1.4x |
| Fair Value | 10.52¥ - 11.63¥ | 11.08¥ |
| Upside | 7.2% - 18.6% | 12.9% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| Jiamei Food Packaging (Chuzhou) Co.,Ltd | 2969 | SZSE:002969 |
| Shandong Xinjufeng Technology Packaging Co., Ltd. | 301296 | SZSE:301296 |
| Shanghai Zijiang Enterprise Group Co., Ltd. | 600210 | SHSE:600210 |
| Shanghai Baosteel Packaging Co., Ltd. | 601968 | SHSE:601968 |
| Xiamen Hexing Packaging Printing Co., Ltd. | 2228 | SZSE:002228 |
| Guangdong Tengen Industrial Group Co.,Ltd. | 3003 | SZSE:003003 |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| 2969 | 301296 | 600210 | 601968 | 2228 | 3003 | |||
| SZSE:002969 | SZSE:301296 | SHSE:600210 | SHSE:601968 | SZSE:002228 | SZSE:003003 | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 1.3% | 15.1% | 2.9% | 9.3% | 0.4% | 7.0% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | 16.5% | 19.6% | 3.7% | 10.3% | 1.1% | 11.7% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -3.7% | 1.6% | 16.7% | -0.5% | -10.5% | -20.8% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 6.2% | 14.4% | 8.4% | 4.6% | 2.0% | 3.6% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 2.3% | 12.6% | 8.6% | 4.2% | 0.7% | -0.1% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 8.0% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 4.7% | 1.3% | 4.1% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 9.2% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 3.8% | 1.5% | 5.8% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.24x | 1.76x | 1.02x | 0.81x | 0.40x | 1.46x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 13.5x | 15.7x | 10.4x | 21.3x | 26.2x | 25.2x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 1.07x | 2.36x | 0.99x | 0.75x | 0.31x | 1.45x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.40x | 1.02x | 1.76x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.27x | 1.51x | 2.29x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.57x | 1.65x | 1.73x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 1,182 | 1,182 | 1,182 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,852 | 1,949 | 2,047 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (8) | (8) | (8) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 1,844 | 1,941 | 2,039 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 175.2 | 175.2 | 175.2 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 10.53 | 11.08 | 11.64 | |||||
| FX Rate: CNY/CNY | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 10.53 | 11.08 | 11.64 | 9.81 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 7.3% | 13.0% | 18.6% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | 2969 | 301296 | 600210 | 601968 | 2228 | 3003 | |
| Enterprise Value | 3,746 | 3,078 | 10,885 | 6,590 | 4,676 | 1,726 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 453 | 453 | 2,036 | 641 | 532 | 353 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 54 | 837 | 1,588 | 201 | 65 | 0 | |
| (-) Debt | (1,023) | (240) | (3,473) | (1,164) | (1,462) | (362) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | 0 | (465) | (188) | (197) | 1 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 3,229 | 4,129 | 10,572 | 6,080 | 3,614 | 1,718 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 955.5 | 416.6 | 1,516.7 | 1,261.4 | 1,158.4 | 175.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 3.38 | 9.91 | 6.97 | 4.82 | 3.12 | 9.81 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 3.38 | 9.91 | 6.97 | 4.82 | 3.12 | 9.81 | |
| Trading Currency | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | CNY | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |