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Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
---|---|---|
Selected LTM EBITDA Multiple | 9.1x - 10.0x | 9.5x |
Selected Fwd EBITDA Multiple | 7.3x - 8.1x | 7.7x |
Fair Value | 5.79$ - 7.38$ | 6.59$ |
Upside | -13.9% - 9.6% | -2.1% |
Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
Terna S.p.A. | TRN | BIT:TRN |
Hera S.p.A. | HER | BIT:HER |
Enel SpA | ENEL | BIT:ENEL |
A2A S.p.A. | A2A | BIT:A2A |
Acinque S.p.A. | AC5 | BIT:AC5 |
Italgas S.p.A. | ITGG.F | OTCPK:ITGG.F |
- | - | - |
Select LTM EBITDA Multiple | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
TRN | HER | ENEL | A2A | AC5 | ITGG.F | ||
BIT:TRN | BIT:HER | BIT:ENEL | BIT:A2A | BIT:AC5 | OTCPK:ITGG.F | ||
Historical EBITDA Growth | |||||||
5Y CAGR | 5.2% | 7.7% | 7.4% | 14.3% | 11.2% | 6.3% | |
3Y CAGR | 6.7% | 8.9% | 17.6% | 20.5% | 11.3% | 8.5% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 21.8% | 6.3% | 30.7% | 25.6% | 48.0% | 7.6% | |
Historical EBITDA Profit Margin | |||||||
5 Year Average Margin | 70.4% | 9.4% | 19.2% | 12.7% | 13.3% | 48.0% | |
Prior Fiscal Year | 66.8% | 8.4% | 18.5% | 12.1% | 10.9% | 45.1% | |
Latest Fiscal Year | 69.7% | 10.5% | 28.8% | 17.3% | 17.2% | 50.7% | |
Latest Twelve Months | 69.7% | 10.5% | 28.8% | 17.3% | 17.2% | 50.7% | |
Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
EV / LTM Revenue | 7.57x | 0.78x | 1.96x | 1.04x | 0.95x | 4.92x | |
EV / LTM EBITDA | 10.9x | 7.4x | 6.8x | 6.0x | 5.5x | 9.7x | |
EV / LTM EBIT | 16.6x | 12.2x | 10.0x | 9.9x | 12.1x | 16.4x | |
Low | Mid | High | |||||
Benchmark EV / LTM EBITDA | 5.5x | 6.8x | 10.9x | ||||
Historical EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.7x | 11.4x | ||||
Selected EV / LTM EBITDA | 9.1x | 9.5x | 10.0x | ||||
(x) LTM EBITDA | 1,265 | 1,265 | 1,265 | ||||
(=) Implied Enterprise Value | 11,473 | 12,077 | 12,681 | ||||
(-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (6,928) | (6,928) | (6,928) | ||||
(=) Equity Value | 4,545 | 5,149 | 5,753 | ||||
(/) Shares Outstanding | 811.8 | 811.8 | 811.8 | ||||
Implied Value Range | 5.60 | 6.34 | 7.09 | ||||
FX Rate: EUR/USD | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.9 | Market Price | |||
Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 6.06 | 6.87 | 7.67 | 6.73 | |||
Upside / (Downside) | -9.9% | 2.0% | 14.0% |
Equity Waterfall | |||||||
Benchmark Companies | |||||||
(in millions) | TRN | HER | ENEL | A2A | AC5 | ITGG.F | |
Enterprise Value | 27,861 | 10,141 | 153,536 | 13,302 | 559 | 11,974 | |
(+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 0 | 1,316 | 8,051 | 1,549 | 100 | 407 | |
(+) Investments & Other | 0 | 127 | 1,456 | 25 | 37 | 187 | |
(-) Debt | (11,160) | (5,460) | (71,084) | (7,272) | (275) | (7,186) | |
(-) Other Liabilities | (20) | (307) | (15,440) | (558) | 0 | (336) | |
(-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
(-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
Value of Common Equity | 16,681 | 5,817 | 76,519 | 7,046 | 420 | 5,047 | |
(/) Shares Outstanding | 2,005.8 | 1,441.2 | 10,155.1 | 3,132.9 | 197.3 | 811.8 | |
Implied Stock Price | 8.32 | 4.04 | 7.54 | 2.25 | 2.13 | 6.22 | |
FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 | |
Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 8.32 | 4.04 | 7.54 | 2.25 | 2.13 | 6.73 | |
Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | USD | |
FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.92 |