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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM Revenue Multiple | 1.9x - 2.2x | 2.0x |
| Selected Fwd Revenue Multiple | 1.8x - 1.9x | 1.8x |
| Fair Value | 8.68$ - 9.94$ | 9.31$ |
| Upside | 37.7% - 57.7% | 47.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
|---|---|---|
| AdvanSix Inc. | ASIX | NYSE:ASIX |
| CVR Partners, LP | UAN | NYSE:UAN |
| Albemarle Corporation | ALB | NYSE:ALB |
| CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | CF | NYSE:CF |
| Nutrien Ltd. | NTR | NYSE:NTR |
| Ecovyst Inc. | ECVT | NYSE:ECVT |
| Select LTM Revenue Multiple | ||||||||
| Benchmark Companies | ||||||||
| ASIX | UAN | ALB | CF | NTR | ECVT | |||
| NYSE:ASIX | NYSE:UAN | NYSE:ALB | NYSE:CF | NYSE:NTR | NYSE:ECVT | |||
| Historical Revenue Growth | ||||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 3.2% | 5.4% | 8.4% | 5.3% | 5.3% | 5.7% | ||
| 3Y CAGR | -3.4% | -0.5% | 17.3% | -3.2% | -2.3% | 4.8% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | -1.0% | -22.9% | -44.1% | -10.5% | -10.9% | 1.9% | ||
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | ||||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 7.1% | 21.1% | 14.7% | 31.5% | 15.1% | 12.8% | ||
| Prior Fiscal Year | 4.5% | 29.9% | 4.9% | 34.1% | 12.7% | 15.0% | ||
| Latest Fiscal Year | 3.9% | 19.9% | -11.1% | 29.1% | 10.4% | 15.0% | ||
| Latest Twelve Months | 3.9% | 19.9% | -11.1% | 29.1% | 10.4% | 15.0% | ||
| Current Trading Multiples | ||||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 2.41x | 2.28x | 2.92x | 1.43x | 1.60x | ||
| EV / LTM EBIT | 15.9x | 12.1x | -20.5x | 10.1x | 13.8x | 10.7x | ||
| Price / LTM Sales | 0.40x | 1.51x | 1.58x | 2.21x | 0.98x | 1.05x | ||
| Low | Mid | High | ||||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM Revenue | 0.62x | 2.28x | 2.92x | |||||
| Historical EV / LTM Revenue | 1.60x | 2.17x | 9.22x | |||||
| Selected EV / LTM Revenue | 1.95x | 2.05x | 2.15x | |||||
| (x) LTM Revenue | 704 | 704 | 704 | |||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 1,371 | 1,443 | 1,515 | |||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (388) | (388) | (388) | |||||
| (=) Equity Value | 984 | 1,056 | 1,128 | |||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 117.4 | 117.4 | 117.4 | |||||
| Implied Value Range | 8.38 | 9.00 | 9.61 | |||||
| FX Rate: USD/USD | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | ||||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 8.38 | 9.00 | 9.61 | 6.30 | ||||
| Upside / (Downside) | 33.0% | 42.8% | 52.5% | |||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | ASIX | UAN | ALB | CF | NTR | ECVT | |
| Enterprise Value | 935 | 1,266 | 12,299 | 17,330 | 35,782 | 1,127 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 20 | 91 | 1,192 | 1,614 | 853 | 153 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 0 | 19 | 1,118 | 29 | 698 | 360 | |
| (-) Debt | (351) | (585) | (3,648) | (3,246) | (12,807) | (900) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | 0 | (0) | (238) | (2,607) | (35) | 0 | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | (2,235) | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 604 | 791 | 8,488 | 13,120 | 24,491 | 739 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 26.7 | 10.6 | 117.6 | 169.5 | 488.8 | 117.4 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 22.57 | 74.85 | 72.19 | 77.39 | 50.10 | 6.30 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 22.57 | 74.85 | 72.19 | 77.39 | 50.10 | 6.30 | |
| Trading Currency | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | USD | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |