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| Metrics | Range | Conclusion |
|---|---|---|
| Selected LTM EBIT Multiple | 15.2x - 16.8x | 16.0x |
| Selected Fwd EBIT Multiple | 10.8x - 12.0x | 11.4x |
| Fair Value | 72.68€ - 80.96€ | 76.82€ |
| Upside | -15.5% - -5.9% | -10.7% |
| Benchmarks | Ticker | Full Ticker |
| KION GROUP AG | KGX | XTRA:KGX |
| Cummins Inc. | CUM | DB:CUM |
| The Greenbrier Companies, Inc. | G90 | DB:G90 |
| Allison Transmission Holdings, Inc. | 1A7 | DB:1A7 |
| Construcciones y Auxiliar de Ferrocarriles, S.A. | AXF1 | DB:AXF1 |
| Knorr-Bremse AG | KBX | DB:KBX |
| - | - | - |
| Select LTM EBIT Multiple | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| KGX | CUM | G90 | 1A7 | AXF1 | KBX | ||
| XTRA:KGX | DB:CUM | DB:G90 | DB:1A7 | DB:AXF1 | DB:KBX | ||
| Historical EBIT Growth | |||||||
| 5Y CAGR | 2.8% | 8.8% | 15.2% | 2.3% | 10.8% | -5.0% | |
| 3Y CAGR | 0.7% | 19.9% | 98.5% | 14.4% | 8.8% | -3.3% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 24.7% | 9.9% | 40.6% | 9.5% | 18.4% | -1.8% | |
| Historical EBIT Profit Margin | |||||||
| 5 Year Average Margin | 5.2% | 10.0% | 4.8% | 29.2% | 4.7% | 12.0% | |
| Prior Fiscal Year | 5.4% | 10.1% | 5.2% | 30.5% | 4.7% | 10.3% | |
| Latest Fiscal Year | 6.7% | 11.1% | 8.8% | 31.5% | 5.1% | 10.1% | |
| Latest Twelve Months | 6.7% | 11.1% | 9.9% | 31.5% | 5.1% | 10.1% | |
| Current Trading Multiples | |||||||
| EV / LTM Revenue | 1.07x | 1.47x | 0.92x | 3.16x | 0.39x | 1.90x | |
| EV / LTM EBITDA | 7.1x | 10.3x | 7.0x | 9.0x | 6.1x | 15.0x | |
| EV / LTM EBIT | 16.0x | 13.2x | 9.3x | 10.0x | 7.7x | 18.8x | |
| Low | Mid | High | |||||
| Benchmark EV / LTM EBIT | 7.7x | 10.0x | 16.0x | ||||
| Historical EV / LTM EBIT | 12.3x | 14.9x | 21.6x | ||||
| Selected EV / LTM EBIT | 15.2x | 16.0x | 16.8x | ||||
| (x) LTM EBIT | 809 | 809 | 809 | ||||
| (=) Implied Enterprise Value | 12,319 | 12,967 | 13,616 | ||||
| (-) Non-shareholder Claims * | (957) | (957) | (957) | ||||
| (=) Equity Value | 11,362 | 12,010 | 12,659 | ||||
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 161.2 | 161.2 | 161.2 | ||||
| Implied Value Range | 70.48 | 74.51 | 78.53 | ||||
| FX Rate: EUR/EUR | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | Market Price | |||
| Implied Value Range (Trading Cur) | 70.48 | 74.51 | 78.53 | 86.00 | |||
| Upside / (Downside) | -18.0% | -13.4% | -8.7% | ||||
| Equity Waterfall | |||||||
| Benchmark Companies | |||||||
| (in millions) | KGX | CUM | G90 | 1A7 | AXF1 | KBX | |
| Enterprise Value | 12,220 | 49,777 | 3,279 | 10,122 | 1,645 | 14,820 | |
| (+) Cash & Short Term Investments | 787 | 2,264 | 326 | 786 | 599 | 2,263 | |
| (+) Investments & Other | 240 | 1,889 | 148 | 18 | 59 | 36 | |
| (-) Debt | (7,692) | (7,687) | (1,901) | (2,420) | (910) | (3,174) | |
| (-) Other Liabilities | (18) | (1,037) | (205) | 0 | (14) | (82) | |
| (-) Preferred Stock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| (-) Other | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Value of Common Equity | 5,537 | 45,206 | 1,646 | 8,506 | 1,378 | 13,863 | |
| (/) Shares Outstanding | 131.1 | 137.5 | 31.4 | 85.5 | 34.2 | 161.2 | |
| Implied Stock Price | 42.23 | 328.82 | 52.47 | 99.46 | 40.25 | 86.00 | |
| FX Conversion Rate to Trading Currency | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |
| Implied Stock Price (Trading Cur) | 42.23 | 305.80 | 48.80 | 92.50 | 40.25 | 86.00 | |
| Trading Currency | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | EUR | |
| FX Rate to Reporting Currency | 1.00 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.08 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |