Deutsche Post AG

DB:DHL

德国 / 工业 / 航空货运与物流

概况

股息

5年收入现金流贴现退出法

股票价格

39.96 EUR

公允价值

48.42 EUR

Metrics	Range	Conclusion
Discount Rate	14.0% - 13.0%	13.5%
Terminal Revenue Multiple	0.8x - 0.9x	0.9x
Fair Value	45.25€ - 51.71€	48.42€
Upside	13.2% - 29.4%	21.2%

3.6%

Revenue 5y CAGR

13.2%

5y Avg EBITDA Margin

19.4%

Unlevered FCF 5y CAGR

5-Year DCF Model: Revenue Exit

股票价格

39.96 EUR

公允价值

48.42 EUR

看涨

21.2%

Revenue and EBITDA

CapEx

Working Capital

D&A

Tax Rate

Discount Rate

Terminal Value


Select Revenue and EBITDA Forecast

(EUR in millions)		Input Projections
Fiscal Years Ending	Dec-24	Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

Revenue	84,772	87,221	90,259	92,933	100,302	101,360
% Growth	3.0%	2.9%	3.5%	3.0%	7.9%	1.1%

EBITDA	7,571	11,214	11,783	12,405	13,383	13,772
% of Revenue	8.9%	12.9%	13.1%	13.3%	13.3%	13.6%

支持的计算方式

Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Discounting Periods

Discounting Factors

Calculation of Enterprise Value

Equity Waterfall

Historical Financials

Current Trading Multiples


Calculation of Free Cash Flow

Projected Unlevered Cash Flow
(EUR in millions)		Dec-25	Dec-26	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29

EBITDA		11,214	11,783	12,405	13,383	13,772
Other Income / (Exp)		0	0	0	0	0
D&A		(4,901)	(4,966)	(5,158)	(5,897)	(6,177)

EBIT		6,313	6,817	7,247	7,486	7,595
Pro forma Taxes		(1,705)	(1,841)	(1,957)	(2,021)	(2,051)
NOPAT	3,885	4,609	4,977	5,290	5,465	5,544

Capital Expenditures	(2,936)	(3,077)	(3,422)	(3,621)	(3,983)	(3,973)
NWC Investment	(9)	(9)	(12)	(10)	(28)	(4)
(+) D&A	2,249	4,901	4,966	5,158	5,897	6,177

Free Cash Flow	3,189	6,423	6,508	6,817	7,351	7,744
% Growth		101%	1%	5%	8%	5%

加载出错

Deutsche Post AG

DB:DHL

德国 / 工业 / 航空货运与物流

5年收入现金流贴现退出法